Markov model of tirzepatide versus placebo (both on top of standard care) in the SUMMIT population (HFpEF + obesity) from the German payer perspective, with monthly cycles over 5 years and four KCCQ-defined health states plus death. Discounted per-patient costs: €5,827 (placebo) versus €31,052 (tirzepatide), with QALYs of 3.539 versus 3.638. Tirzepatide yielded 0.100 additional QALYs at incremental costs of €25,225, ICER €252,611/QALY — far above the €100,000/QALY threshold. Five-year budget impact: €1.9-6.2 billion under SUMMIT criteria and €3.8-12.6 billion under broad eligibility, depending on uptake (30/50/100%). Substantial price reduction would be needed for tirzepatide to be both cost-effective and affordable at population scale.
Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is common, obesity-related, and associated with high symptom burden and healthcare use. Tirzepatide, a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist, improved symptoms and outcomes in SUMMIT, but its acquisition cost raises concerns about value and affordability.
We developed a Markov model comparing tirzepatide versus placebo, both added to standard care, in the SUMMIT population from the German statutory health insurance perspective. The model used monthly cycles over 5 years with four Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire clinical summary score-defined health states (Q1-Q4) plus death. Arm-specific transitions and rates of all-cause death and worsening heart failure were derived from SUMMIT. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, including tirzepatide price-reduction scenarios, were conducted to explore parameter uncertainty and price thresholds simultaneously. A prevalence-based budget impact analysis extrapolated results to the German HFpEF-obesity population under alternative eligibility (SUMMIT-like vs broad) and uptake (30%, 50%, 100%) scenarios.
Discounted per-patient costs were €5827 (placebo) and €31,052 (tirzepatide), with quality-adjusted life years of 3.539 and 3.638. Tirzepatide generated 0.100 additional quality-adjusted life years at an incremental cost of €25,225, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 252,611€/quality-adjusted life year, with low probability of cost-effectiveness at €100,000/QALY. Five-year incremental spending was ∼€1.9-6.2 billion with SUMMIT-like and ∼ €3.8-12.6 billion with broad eligibility, depending on uptake.
Tirzepatide provides modest quality-adjusted life year gains at substantially higher costs and, at current price, appears neither cost-effective nor affordable at scale in German care. Substantial price reductions would be required to improve economic attractiveness and budgetary impact.
